|
|
Welcome to Forecast UK. To keep up with our latest predictions, make sure you subscribe to the RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!  Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
37.0% |
+4.6% |
-0.2% |
| Labour |
28.1% |
-7.1% |
+0.1% |
| Lib Dem |
19.9% |
-2.1% |
-1.0% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
5.9% |
|
After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, despite a number of fluctuating polls (especially from YouGov), the two main parties have seen little shift in their support. New polls in the marginals (both nationally and regionally) have helped to clarify how effective the Conservatives have been in targeting the right kind of votes in the right kind of places. We continue to forecast a Conservative overall majority, but with a slim margin of seats.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing We continue to see an increase in support for the SNP and Plaid and our forecast reflects these observations. In particular, the SNP have seen dramatic increases in support in Scotland, mainly at the expense of the Tories and Labour, and indications on the ground are that they are now more likely to be used by voters north of the border as an “Anti-Labour” vote. Our new forecast reflects these latest findings.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture over a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them more than ten seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to just below 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a more bold prediction of 6 seats.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
330 |
+117 |
-7 |
| Labour |
237 |
-110 |
+9 |
| Lib Dem |
43 |
-17 |
-5
|
| SNP |
12 |
+6 |
+3 |
| Plaid Cymru |
6 |
+4 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
10 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives have slipped again by over 1.5% and are now approaching levels of support which could leave them without an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats appear to have stabilised their ratings around 21%.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
37.2% |
+4.8% |
-1.6% |
| Labour |
28.0% |
-7.2% |
-0.1% |
| Lib Dem |
21.0% |
-1.0% |
+0.2% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
6.0% |
|
The latest information shows that the position for Labour is improving as the Election approaches. The Liberal Democrats have maintained support, but we can now confirm that the Conservatives are losing their predominant position.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Opinion polls since our last forecast confirm the drop in support for the Conservatives that we first began to see signs of last week. Although it has been a bad news week for Labour, their levels of support seem to be holding up, as well as those of the Liberal Democrats.
We have seen an increase in support for the SNP and Plaid and our forecast reflects these observations.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of nine seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a more bold prediction of 6 seats.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
337 |
+124 |
-13 |
| Labour |
228 |
-119 |
+5 |
| Lib Dem |
48 |
-12 |
+4 |
| SNP |
9 |
+3 |
+2 |
| Plaid Cymru |
6 |
+4 |
+2 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
24 |
|
The simple answer is, yes. Here is the timetable from the official Commons’ Briefing Paper, together with the relevant dates.
| Proclamation summoning new Parliament/dissolution of old Parliament/issue of writ |
Day 0 |
Monday
March 1st |
| Receipt of writ |
Day 1 |
Tuesday
March 2nd |
| Last day for publication of notice of election (4pm) |
Day 3 |
Thursday
March 4th |
Last day for delivery of nomination papers/withdrawals of candidature/ appointment of election agents (4pm)
Statement of persons nominated published at close of time for making objections to nomination papers (5pm on Day 6) or as soon afterwards as any objections are disposed of
Last day for requests for a new postal vote or to change or cancel an existing postal vote or proxy appointment (5pm)
Last day to apply to register to vote |
Day 6 |
Tuesday March 9th |
| Last day for new applications to vote by proxy (except for medical emergencies) (5pm) |
Day 11 |
Tuesday
March 16th |
| Last day for appointment of polling and counting agents |
Day 15 |
Tuesday
March 23rd |
Polling Day (7 am – 10 pm)
Last day to apply for a replacement for spoilt or lost postal ballot papers (5pm) |
Day 17 |
Thursday
March 25th |
NB St Patrick’s Day (March 17th) is a Bank Holiday in Northern Ireland
The latest time Gordon Brown could go to the Queen for a March 25th election is Monday afternoon. The only issue for Gordon Brown is that if he went to the Queen this afternoon (Friday), or any time up to Monday afternoon, there would be little time to come to agreement on outstanding legislation.
Forecast UK will publish their latest tracker prediction later today.
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives appear to have recovered slightly from the dip they suffered mid February, but new polls indicate that that situation may not remain for long. The Liberal Democrats appear to have stabilised their ratings around 21%.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
38.8% |
+6.4% |
+0.5% |
| Labour |
28.1% |
-7.1% |
-0.1% |
| Lib Dem |
20.8% |
-1.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.0% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position continuing to firm up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our previous predictions last year for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing The Conservatives have recovered slightly from last week but recent opinion polls indicate that their support may continue to slip. One other key feature of the polls of the past few weeks is that the number of people prepared to vote for minority parties continues to fall as the upcoming General Election is cast by the media as a battle between the main parties.
After last week’s stabilisation of the SNP vote, this week has seen the slide begin again. We continue to forecast that they will only capture seven seats.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture between a fifth and a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win 4 or 5 seats. In this forecast we tend to a cautious prediction of 4 seats.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
350 |
+137 |
+5 |
| Labour |
223 |
-124 |
-1 |
| Lib Dem |
44 |
-16 |
-3 |
| SNP |
7 |
+1 |
nc |
| Plaid Cymru |
4 |
+2 |
-1 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
50 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have continued to see a noticeable decline in support for the Conservatives, with polls by ICM, Populus and Angus Reid confirming the new trend.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
38.3% |
+5.9% |
-0.6% |
| Labour |
28.2% |
-7.0% |
+0.8% |
| Lib Dem |
21.1% |
-0.9% |
+0.4% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
6.5% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position continuing to firm up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our previous predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Labour continues to pick up in the polls with a strong movement upwards this week, with the Conservatives continuing their downward trend. However, they are still polling at levels likely to see a large defeat at the General Election, unless the climb continues for at least a month.
The SNP vote in Scotland has stabilised, though we now believe they will only capture seven seats.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales seems to have recovered from its recent decline and we have adjusted our foecast appropriately.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
345 |
+132 |
-8 |
| Labour |
224 |
-123 |
+3 |
| Lib Dem |
47 |
-13 |
+5 |
| SNP |
7 |
+1 |
nc |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
40 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or just a particular observation of last weekend.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
38.9% |
+6.5% |
-0.7% |
| Labour |
27.4% |
-7.8% |
+0.9% |
| Lib Dem |
20.7% |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.2% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Labour has picked up in the polls with a strong movement upwards this week, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats losing out. However, they are still polling at levels likely to see a large defeat at the General Election, unless the climb continues for at least a month.
The SNP vote in Scotland has stabilised, though we now believe they will only capture seven seats.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales seems to have recovered from its recent decline and we have adjusted our foecast appropriately.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
353 |
+140 |
-12 |
| Labour |
221 |
-126 |
+21 |
| Lib Dem |
42 |
-18 |
-9 |
| SNP |
7 |
+1 |
-1 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
+1 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
56 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
39.6% |
+7.2% |
-0.5% |
| Labour |
26.4% |
-8.8% |
-0.1% |
| Lib Dem |
21.2% |
-0.8% |
+0.4% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
8.0% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing It is clear that Labour continues to slowly slide in the polls and apart from Scotland their positions in all parts of the country is weak. An ICM marginals poll has helped our forecast confirm its predictions as regards the likelihood of a strong majority for David Cameron’s Conservatives.
We have evidence of the SNP vote beginning to slip in Scotland as the election approaches and this may affect our prediction of SNP seats over the next few weeks.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
- There is now growing evidence of weakening support for Plaid Cymru in Wales over the past month. Our forecast for the number of seats they will win has been adjusted in line with this.
- We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
365 |
+152 |
-5 |
| Labour |
200 |
-147 |
+1 |
| Lib Dem |
51 |
-9 |
+4 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
nc |
| Plaid Cymru |
4 |
+2 |
-1 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
80 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and have dropped back into a dangerously low poll rating.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
40.1% |
+7.7% |
+0.9% |
| Labour |
26.5% |
-8.7% |
-1.2% |
| Lib Dem |
20.8% |
-1.2% |
+1.0% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
8.2% |
|
A week of bad publicity and the Labour forecast based on a number of UK polling agencies is down again. The Conservatives are now opening up a significant lead, though it’s too early to tell what the effect of the new Labour campaign attacking the Tory policy on marriage will be.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
- We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We now forecast that the Conservatives will take back Wyre Forest from the Independent Richard Taylor
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
370 |
+157 |
+7 |
| Labour |
199 |
-148 |
-13 |
| Lib Dem |
47 |
-13 |
+6 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
-1 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
2 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
90 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As political events settle down after a dynamic fortnight, Labour have pulled back slightly but still look set on course for a disastrous defeat at the polls.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
39.2% |
+6.8% |
-0.8% |
| Labour |
27.7% |
-7.5% |
+0.5% |
| Lib Dem |
19.8% |
-2.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.2% |
|
There continues to appear to be a ceiling for Labour poll figures suggesting that while recent events and campaigning has hardened the core vote, there is still little sign of Labour retaining the votes of those who left the Conservatives in 1997 and are now seemingly returning to a Cameron led Tory party.
Forecast UK Predicted Swing Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Our new style forecast continues to predict that the Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels. This means that the predictions of large SNP gains we made a year ago are now no longer likely unless the situation changes north of the border.
We do not as yet have enough detailed information to make specific seat predictions for Wales or Northern Ireland.
We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
361 |
+148 |
-4
|
| Labour |
212 |
-135 |
+4 |
| Lib Dem |
41 |
-19 |
nc |
| SNP |
9 |
+3 |
+1
|
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
72 |
|
The second of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote, shows dramatic movement in public opinion over the past week. The failed Labour leadership coup has damaged the Government and our forecast has been adjusted to present a much more confident picture for Dave Cameron’s Conservatives.
Summary
| Party
| %
| Since 2005
| Since Prev
|
| Conservative |
40.0% |
+7.6% |
+1.0% |
| Labour |
27.2% |
-8.0% |
nc
|
| Lib Dem |
19.9% |
-2.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.8% |
|
There continues to appear to be a ceiling for Labour poll figures suggesting that while recent events and campaigning has hardened the core vote, there is still little sign of Labour retaining the votes of those who left the Conservatives in 1997 and are now seemingly returning to a Cameron led Tory party. The events of the past week have strengthened the Conservatives position. The decline in support for the Liberal Democrats may be partially due to lack of media coverage.
Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Our new style forecast continues to predict that the Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels. This means that the predictions of large SNP gains we made a year ago are now no longer likely unless the situation changes north of the border.
We do not as yet have enough detailed information to make specific seat predictions for Wales or Northern Ireland.
We continue to predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win one of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
Full Forecast
| Party
| Seats
| Since 2005
| Since Prev
|
| Conservative |
365 |
+152 |
+22
|
| Labour |
208 |
-139 |
-14 |
| Lib Dem |
41 |
-19 |
-8 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
nc
|
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
4 |
nc |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
80 |
|
|
Current Forecast 26th Feb 2010
| Conservative |
37.2% |
+4.8% |
| Labour |
28.0% |
-7.2% |
| Lib Dem |
21.0% |
-1.0% |
|
|
|
| Swing Lab to Con |
|
6.0% |
| Conservative |
337 |
+124 |
| Labour |
228 |
-119 |
| Lib Dem |
48 |
-12 |
| SNP |
9 |
+3 |
| Plaid Cymru |
6 |
+4 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
|
|
|
| Con Maj |
|
24 |
|
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