Latest Forecast - May 9th 2008
By admin | May 9, 2008
Welcome to Forecast UK. To keep up with our latest predictions, make sure you subscribe to the RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
In the past two days we have taken into account new polls from both Populus and YouGov, who’s latest research shows a Conservative lead of 26 percentage points on 49%. Our forecast currently puts the Conservative vote on 42.3%, but if other polls follow this morning’s YouGov research that figure may rise again.
Opinion polls north of the border show a large increase in SNP support, with almost as many Scottish voters prepared to support Alex Salmond’s party as they are Labour. Our Scottish forecast therefore shows the SNP set to win around 14 Westminster seats.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Full Forecast
Con : 42.3%
Lab : 27.0%
LDm : 18.7%Con : 391
Lab : 196
LDm : 21
SNP : 14
PC : 5
Irish : 18
Oth : 5Conservative Majority of 132
Topics: Forecast | No Comments »
Welsh Assembly 2007 Forecast - Looking Back
By admin | May 8, 2008
May 2007 was the first real test for Forecast UK in predicting UK elections. We gave a number of forecasts in particular for the Welsh Assembly, and our final forecast on the morning of the vote was particularly accurate.
| Predicted Result | Actual Result | |
| Labour |
27 | 26 |
| Plaid Cymru | 15 | 15 |
| Conservative | 10 | 12 |
| Lib Dem | 7 | 6 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
Although we slightly under-forecast the Conservative position, all other parties were accurately predicted with the Plaid Cymru seat count exactly right (despite having a higher prediction than other forecasts).
Our next test will be the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. We have already issued a preliminary forecast (see right hand side) but we will be updating that over the next fortnight as polling day approaches.
Topics: Wales | No Comments »
Crewe and Nantwich - First Forecast
By admin | May 7, 2008
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only two weeks away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote.
By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. how much of the vote the winning party will defeat the second place party.
At present there are no opinion polls on the ground in the constituency, so this prediction is based on national and regional opinion polls.
Crewe and Nantwich - First Forecast
Conservative Victory - Majority of 6% over Labour. Swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative
This would be the equivalent of 2,700 votes on a turnout similar to 2005.
Topics: Forecast | No Comments »
Latest Forecast - May 7th 2008
By admin | May 7, 2008
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
Recent opinion polls have placed the Conservatives at around 40% with the exception of YouGov who position them in the region of 44%. YouGov have recently excelled themselves with a highly accurate prediction of the London Mayoral contest and other pollsters are now reviewing whether the YouGov internet based system of assessing public opinion may be the better way to go.
In our Scottish forecast, a resurgent SNP, whilst still trailing Labour in the Westminster polls is set to win around 12 seats.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first Westminster seat, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Full Forecast
Con : 41.3%
Lab : 27.7%
LDm : 18.5%Con : 377
Lab : 209
LDm : 24
SNP : 12
PC : 5
Irish : 18
Oth : 5Conservative Majority of 104
Topics: Forecast | No Comments »
A Note on Scottish Forecasts
By admin | May 6, 2008
In recent months, the SNP has been running at around 3.5% in national opinion polls. When compared to Scottish only opinion polls, this figure appears to overstate the support of the SNP north of the border and leads to highly unlikely forecasts for the number of SNP MPs returned at the next General Election.
However, opinion pollsters have begun in recent months making regular assessments of Scottish voting intentions for both Holyrood and Westminster, using sample sizes identical to those used in national UK surveys. This allows for a greater degree of accuracy in tracking voting intention in Scotland, permitting us to make more precise forecasts.
Forecast UK is now forecasting Westminster seats in Scotland separately from the rest of the UK. This will allow more accurate predictions to be made and to avoid the overstated figures from last year.
Topics: Scotland | No Comments »
Welcome Back!!!
By admin | May 5, 2008
To cut a long story short, our old hosting firm pulled the plug, we couldn’t get access to the domain and we had to sit tight over half a year. We’re now back in action and we’ll be providing forecasting of UK parliamentary and regional elections as before.
Topics: General | No Comments »