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Welcome to Forecast UK. To keep up with our latest predictions, make sure you subscribe to the RSS feed. Thanks for visiting! This is our final forecast for the European Elections on the 4th of June.
Predicting the outcome of the European vote is a difficult job. In particular, voter turnout may have a dramatic effect on the figures. There is also the issue as to whether there is a “spiral of silence” about the level of support for the BNP. However, we will attempt to provide a forecast based on recent opinion polls and reports on the ground. Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the Euro Election being held the day of the forecast.
Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this year predicting a wipeout if polling levels remained the same. Although the Conservatives have lost 4% since our last forecast only three weeks ago, the real losers are Labour. While they have lost less support than the Tories, they have lost it in the areas that matter. In particular, we are recording from several polling agencies that in Scotland the main vehicle for voters to express their anger against the main parties over expenses is the SNP. Consequentially we are forecasting major gains for the SNP were an election to be held immediately. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East. We forecast Labour to hold Glasgow North East, the seat of retiring Speaker Michael Martin, at a General Election. Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
We will shortly be publishing new forecasts, both for a UK General Election and for the Euro Vote in June. Since our last forecast the political situation in the UK has altered significantly and our next forecasts will demonstrate not just a climb in poll ratings for the Liberal Democrats but also the effect of minor parties on the Euro vote. Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions? The forecast of Lib Dem losses is made on the basis of a resurgent Conservative Party that is consistently polling at a level 10% higher than its share of the vote in the 2005 election. At the same time the Liberal Democrats have been trailing in the polls with levels of support well under their share of the vote four years ago. On those figures the Conservatives would improve their lead over the Lib Dems by around 15%, giving a 7.5% swing to the Tories. This kind of figure would yield to the Conservatives almost 30 Lib Dem seats, as the table below indicates. Continue reading Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout? Our third forecast of the year reflects the increasing bad news for the Labour Government in the news and the consequential effect on public opinion. The Liberal Democrat vote continues to improve, and while we are still predicting losses for them, especially in the South-West, those losses are beginning to be minimised. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Our second forecast of the year shows that the Conservative double-digit lead continues to be maintained. The Liberal Democrat vote has improved slightly. While we are still predicting heavy losses for them, especially in the South-West, there are signs that their vote is improving slowly. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Our first forecast of the New Year shows that the "Brown Bounce" has all but evaporated. The Liberal Democrat vote has fallen back again and all the indications are that they are continuing to lose out in the Tory / Labour battle. We continue to predict them losing a dramatic number of seats in the South West to the Conservatives. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Here at Forecast UK we have consistently predicted a Conservative sweep of English Liberal Democrat Seats. Now blogger Guido Fawkes reports on a new Liberal Democrat pressure group paper that agrees with this forecast.
Our first forecast since the summer shows a slight improvement for Labour, especially in their Scottish heartlands. We are now predicting gains for the SNP in the region of 20 seats, still a disaster but not the complete Scottish landslide we were forecasting last month. The Liberal Democrat vote has has recovered slightly, but all the indications are that they are continuing to lose out in the Tory / Labour battle. We continue to predict them losing a dramatic number of seats in the South West to the Conservatives. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
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