Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this year predicting a wipeout if polling levels remained the same.
Although the Conservatives have lost 4% since our last forecast only three weeks ago, the real losers are Labour. While they have lost less support than the Tories, they have lost it in the areas that matter. In particular, we are recording from several polling agencies that in Scotland the main vehicle for voters to express their anger against the main parties over expenses is the SNP. Consequentially we are forecasting major gains for the SNP were an election to be held immediately.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
We forecast Labour to hold Glasgow North East, the seat of retiring Speaker Michael Martin, at a General Election.
Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
Full Forecast
Con : 39.5%
Lab : 24.4%
LDm : 20.1%
Con : 389
Lab : 161
LDm :49
SNP : 26
PC : 4
Irish : 18
Oth : 4
Conservative Majority of 128