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This is our first forecast of the new year and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results.
This forecast assumes a General Election held on the day of the forecast. This is particularly important to understand given the very low number of Liberal Democrat MPs returned in the forecast. We expect the Liberal Democrats’ poll ratings to improve closer to an actual election.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2010
Conservative
37.1%
+1.2%
Labour
41.2%
+11.5%
Lib Dem
10.3%
-12.3%
The main change since the General Election is the continued collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another election to be called is uncertain, but it appears that the majority of support that has drifted from the Lib Dems has gone to Labour. If the Liberal Democrats poll on this level at a General Election, on a ratio swing they would hold only two seats in Scotland and none elsewhere.
Our new forecast indicates that Labour would easily form an outright majority were a General Election to be held tomorrow. Since our last forecast the lead over the Conservatives has extended, mainly transfered from support for the Liberal Democrats.
Current polling shows particularly strong support for Plaid Cymru in Wales.
This is our second forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2010
Conservative
38.2%
+2.3%
Labour
38.9%
+9.2%
Lib Dem
12.0%
-10.6%
The main change since the General Election is the continued collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another election to be called is uncertain, but it appears that the majority of support that has drifted from the Lib Dems has gone to Labour. If the Liberal Democrats poll on this level at a General Election, on a ratio swing they would hold only three seats in Scotland and Nick Clegg’s seat of Sheffield Hallam.
Our new forecast indicates that Labour would easily form an outright majority were a General Election to be held tomorrow.
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will lose Brighton Pavilion as the Labour vote recovers slightly in the South.
This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2010
Conservative
40.1%
+4.2%
Labour
36.7%
+7.0%
Lib Dem
14.1%
-8.5%
The main change since the General Election is the collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another election to be called is uncertain, but it appears that the majority of support that has drifted from the Lib Dems has gone to Labour.
The Lib Dem collapse means that neither of the two large parties could form a majority in coalition with the Lib Dems. The current Con /Lib Dem coalition would have 306 seats (not enough to match Labour’s number of seats) but a Labour / Lib Dem coalition would have only 321 seats, only enough for a minority administration.
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will lose Brighton Pavilion as the Labour vote recovers slightly in the South.
Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse in the “Clegg bounce” and here at Forecast UK we didn’t see any indication of it in the polls. Indeed, the last few days of polls indicated a slight rising trend in supports for the Liberal Democrats.
This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Final Update – 14:45 BST
Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Conservative
36.2%
+3.0%
Labour
26.9%
-9.2%
Lib Dem
27.6%
+5.2%
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
We do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
We believe that Richard Taylor will lose in Wyre Forest to the Conservative challenge there.
This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted to be back in third place, marginally behind Labour. We also predict a higher Conservative vote with levels of support moving towards overall majority territory again.
Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the poll results of the past few days, we have analysed the regional fluctuations, tactical voting possibilities and trends to give a far greater accurate picture of how we think the House of Commons might look if an election was held tomorrow.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results as previously.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
35.2%
+2.0%
+0.7%
Labour
27.2%
-8.9%
-0.1%
Lib Dem
26.8%
+4.4%
-1.6%
The Conservatives appear to have momentum moving into the final few days and this progress is reflected in our forecast. If the current pattern continues we anticipate that our final forecast is significantly likely to show a narrow overall majority for David Cameron. However, the next few days’ polls will need to confirm this trend.
Although the Liberal Democrats have fallen significantly in the past 10 days, that decline now appears to have halted. The Labour and Liberal Democrat percentage vote figures are within each others’ margin of error and although we currently forecast Labour to be in second place by less than 0.5%, that position may change by Thursday.
Other Key Predictions
Although the General Election is three days away, we are now in a position to make our first firm predictions for Polling Day
United Kingdom Forecast – Conservatives will be largest party
We are now confidently predicting that the Conservatives will be the largest party in the new Parliament. Although the mainstream media are making forecasts based on Uniform National Swing, it is clear on the ground that the swing in the marginals is of a different order and there is little chance of Labour achieving a plurality.
Scotland Forecast – No SNP breakthrough
It is now clear from the polls and local information that there will be no SNP breakthrough this Election. Although the SNP vote will rise slightly and they may gain a seat or two they will not come anywhere close their target of 20 seats.
The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture less then 20% of the popular vote, enough to gain one or two seats but no more than that. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now near 2005 levels. The Conservatives may gain one or two seats north of the border.
The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a cautious prediction of 4 seats.
We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
Since our last forecast the position in the polls has stabilised slightly. If an election was held tomorrow, we believe that the Liberal Democrats would still be in second position, but not with as large a lead over Labour as some recent opinion polls have indicated.
Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the poll results of the past few days, we have analysed the regional fluctuations, tactical voting possibilities and trends to give a far greater accurate picture of how we think the House of Commons might look if an election was held tomorrow.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results as previously.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
34.5%
+1.3%
+1.8%
Labour
27.3%
-8.8%
+2.2%
Lib Dem
28.6%
+6.0%
-2.8%
The Conservatives and Labour have reduced the impact of the Liberal Democrat surge, but their position is still significantly down since the start of the campaign. The new forecast gives the Conservatives a healthier position then last week, but we are still forecasting them to be far short of an overall majority.
The minor parties are being squashed by the Liberal Democrat surge, and our new forecast downgrades the Plaid Cymru prediction.
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture less then a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain one or two seats but no more than that. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now above 2005 levels.
The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a cautious prediction of 4 seats.
We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
A dramatic week in the polls has prompted us to release an interim forecast to reflect the current parties’ standings.
Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the poll results of the past few days, we have analysed the regional fluctuations, tactical voting possibilities and trends to give a far greater accurate picture of how we think the House of Commons might look if an election was held tomorrow.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results as previously.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
32.7%
-0.5%
-4.1%
Labour
25.1%
-11.0%
-4.9%
Lib Dem
31.4%
+8.8%
+9.3%
It must be pointed out that these figures are based upon an election taking place tomorrow. We confidently expect the next week to see a decline in the level of support for the Liberal Democrats. Despite that though, the current prediction is of a totally hung Parliament with the Conservatives by the far the largest party.
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture less then a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain one or two seats but no more than that. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now above 2005 levels.
The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a medium prediction of 5 seats.
We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
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Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results as previously.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
36.8%
+3.6%
-1.8%
Labour
30.0%
-6.1%
+0.8%
Lib Dem
22.1%
-0.5%
+2.3%
Swing Labour to Conservative
4.9%
A week into the formal General Election campaign and our prediction shows a remarkably different position for the Conservatives since last week. Seven days of deteriorating polling figures for the Tories have produced an obviously hung parliament with no clear winner. The Liberal Democrats have dramatically improved, but it must be noted that these figures do not include any of the responses to last night’s first ever televised Leaders’ Debate.
Forecast UK Predicted Swing
Our new forecast maintains the SNP position in Scotland (where Labour is outperforming its national figures) and upgrades the Plaid Cymru position in Wales.
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture less then a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain one or two seats but no more than that. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now above 2005 levels.
The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a medium prediction of 5 seats.
We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.
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