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Welcome to Forecast UK. To keep up with our latest predictions, make sure you subscribe to the RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!  Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or just a particular observation of last weekend.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
38.9% |
+6.5% |
-0.7% |
| Labour |
27.4% |
-7.8% |
+0.9% |
| Lib Dem |
20.7% |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.2% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Labour has picked up in the polls with a strong movement upwards this week, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats losing out. However, they are still polling at levels likely to see a large defeat at the General Election, unless the climb continues for at least a month.
The SNP vote in Scotland has stabilised, though we now believe they will only capture seven seats.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
- The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales seems to have recovered from its recent decline and we have adjusted our foecast appropriately.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
353 |
+140 |
-12 |
| Labour |
221 |
-126 |
+21 |
| Lib Dem |
42 |
-18 |
-9 |
| SNP |
7 |
+1 |
-1 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
+1 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
56 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
39.6% |
+7.2% |
-0.5% |
| Labour |
26.4% |
-8.8% |
-0.1% |
| Lib Dem |
21.2% |
-0.8% |
+0.4% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
8.0% |
|
The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing It is clear that Labour continues to slowly slide in the polls and apart from Scotland their positions in all parts of the country is weak. An ICM marginals poll has helped our forecast confirm its predictions as regards the likelihood of a strong majority for David Cameron’s Conservatives.
We have evidence of the SNP vote beginning to slip in Scotland as the election approaches and this may affect our prediction of SNP seats over the next few weeks.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
- There is now growing evidence of weakening support for Plaid Cymru in Wales over the past month. Our forecast for the number of seats they will win has been adjusted in line with this.
- We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
365 |
+152 |
-5 |
| Labour |
200 |
-147 |
+1 |
| Lib Dem |
51 |
-9 |
+4 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
nc |
| Plaid Cymru |
4 |
+2 |
-1 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
80 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and have dropped back into a dangerously low poll rating.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
40.1% |
+7.7% |
+0.9% |
| Labour |
26.5% |
-8.7% |
-1.2% |
| Lib Dem |
20.8% |
-1.2% |
+1.0% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
8.2% |
|
A week of bad publicity and the Labour forecast based on a number of UK polling agencies is down again. The Conservatives are now opening up a significant lead, though it’s too early to tell what the effect of the new Labour campaign attacking the Tory policy on marriage will be.
 Forecast UK Predicted Swing Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
- We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We now forecast that the Conservatives will take back Wyre Forest from the Independent Richard Taylor
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
370 |
+157 |
+7 |
| Labour |
199 |
-148 |
-13 |
| Lib Dem |
47 |
-13 |
+6 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
-1 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
2 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
90 |
|
 Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As political events settle down after a dynamic fortnight, Labour have pulled back slightly but still look set on course for a disastrous defeat at the polls.
Summary
| Party |
% |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
39.2% |
+6.8% |
-0.8% |
| Labour |
27.7% |
-7.5% |
+0.5% |
| Lib Dem |
19.8% |
-2.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.2% |
|
There continues to appear to be a ceiling for Labour poll figures suggesting that while recent events and campaigning has hardened the core vote, there is still little sign of Labour retaining the votes of those who left the Conservatives in 1997 and are now seemingly returning to a Cameron led Tory party.
Forecast UK Predicted Swing Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Our new style forecast continues to predict that the Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels. This means that the predictions of large SNP gains we made a year ago are now no longer likely unless the situation changes north of the border.
We do not as yet have enough detailed information to make specific seat predictions for Wales or Northern Ireland.
We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
Full Forecast
| Party |
Seats |
Since 2005 |
Since Prev |
| Conservative |
361 |
+148 |
-4
|
| Labour |
212 |
-135 |
+4 |
| Lib Dem |
41 |
-19 |
nc |
| SNP |
9 |
+3 |
+1
|
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
72 |
|
The second of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote, shows dramatic movement in public opinion over the past week. The failed Labour leadership coup has damaged the Government and our forecast has been adjusted to present a much more confident picture for Dave Cameron’s Conservatives.
Summary
| Party
| %
| Since 2005
| Since Prev
|
| Conservative |
40.0% |
+7.6% |
+1.0% |
| Labour |
27.2% |
-8.0% |
nc
|
| Lib Dem |
19.9% |
-2.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.8% |
|
There continues to appear to be a ceiling for Labour poll figures suggesting that while recent events and campaigning has hardened the core vote, there is still little sign of Labour retaining the votes of those who left the Conservatives in 1997 and are now seemingly returning to a Cameron led Tory party. The events of the past week have strengthened the Conservatives position. The decline in support for the Liberal Democrats may be partially due to lack of media coverage.
Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Our new style forecast continues to predict that the Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels. This means that the predictions of large SNP gains we made a year ago are now no longer likely unless the situation changes north of the border.
We do not as yet have enough detailed information to make specific seat predictions for Wales or Northern Ireland.
We continue to predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win one of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
Full Forecast
| Party
| Seats
| Since 2005
| Since Prev
|
| Conservative |
365 |
+152 |
+22
|
| Labour |
208 |
-139 |
-14 |
| Lib Dem |
41 |
-19 |
-8 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
nc
|
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
nc |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
nc |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
nc |
| Other |
4 |
nc |
nc |
|
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
80 |
|
This is the first of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As such it varies from our previous forecasts which are based on the General Election being held the same day as the forecast. Our Forecast UK tracker will also shortly update to this new system of forecasting allowing you easy comparison over the coming months as to how the state of the parties has varied over the winter and spring.
Summary
| Conservative |
39.0% |
+6.6% |
| Labour |
27.2% |
-8.0% |
| Lib Dem |
20.7% |
-1.3% |
|
|
|
| Swing Labour to Conservative |
|
7.3% |
The Labour vote has strengthened slightly in the past month indicating that a landslide might now not be likely for the Conservatives. However, there does currently seem to be a ceiling for Labour poll figures suggesting that while recent events and campaigning has hardened the core vote, there is still little sign of Labour retaining the votes of those who left the Conservatives in 1997 and are now seemingly returning to a Cameron led Tory party.
Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.
Our new style forecast continues to predict that the Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels. This means that the predictions of large SNP gains we made a year ago are now no longer likely unless the situation changes north of the border.
We do not as yet have enough detailed information to make specific seat predictions for Wales or Northern Ireland.
We continue to predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win one of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
Full Forecast
| Conservative |
343 |
+130 |
| Labour |
222 |
-125 |
| Lib Dem |
49 |
-11 |
| SNP |
8 |
+2 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
| Other |
4 |
nc |
|
|
|
| Conservative Majority |
|
36 |
As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself.
Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for the Conservatives with a resurgence of votes for Labour, especially north of the border where the SNP has slipped back. Since our last forecast two weeks ago however we have seen an improvement in the Conservative position, indicating that media speculation about the gap between the parties tightening may be over-hyped. We therefore continue to forecast a healthy Conservative majority and do not believe that there is much evidence yet of the likelihood of a hung parliament.
While we continue to forecast a collapse in the number of Liberal Democrat MPs, we fully anticipate the low figure to change once we are in the General Election campaign and the Liberal Democrat profile increases. Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Full Forecast
| Conservative |
39.7% |
| Labour |
28.2% |
| Lib Dem |
18.2% |
| Conservative |
365 |
| Labour |
221 |
| Lib Dem |
26 |
| SNP |
10 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
| Green |
1 |
| Irish |
18 |
| Other |
4 |
Conservative Majority of 80
Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls, we are seeing a reduction in support for the Conservatives with a resurgence of votes for Labour, especially north of the border where the SNP has slipped back. Despite this we continue to forecast a healthy Conservative majority.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
Full Forecast
| Conservative |
38.9% |
| Labour |
27.6% |
| Lib Dem |
19.0% |
| Conservative |
360 |
| Labour |
223 |
| Lib Dem |
31 |
| SNP |
8 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
| Green |
1 |
| Irish |
18 |
| Other |
4 |
Conservative Majority of 70
Our latest forecast uses data from just before the party conferences (and will be followed by one from after the conferences). We see that the Conservatives are maintaining their strong position and Labour continue to be set for a poor result.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
We forecast Labour to hold Glasgow North East, the seat of retiring Speaker Michael Martin, at a General Election.
Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
Full Forecast
Con : 39.7%
Lab : 25.1%
LDm : 21.1%
Con : 390
Lab : 177
LDm :45
SNP : 13
PC : 4
Irish : 18
Oth : 3
Conservative Majority of 130
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Current Forecast 5th Feb 2010
| Conservative |
38.9% |
+6.5% |
| Labour |
27.4% |
-7.8% |
| Lib Dem |
20.7% |
-1.3% |
|
|
|
| Swing Lab to Con |
|
8.0% |
| Conservative |
353 |
+140 |
| Labour |
221 |
-126 |
| Lib Dem |
42 |
-18 |
| SNP |
7 |
+1 |
| Plaid Cymru |
5 |
+3 |
| Green |
1 |
+1 |
| Irish |
18 |
nc |
| Other |
3 |
-1 |
|
|
|
| Con Maj |
|
80 |
|
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