Comments on: Latest Forecast – 26th February http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=302 Predicting the Next UK General Election Sat, 04 Sep 2010 17:35:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: David Kitchen http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=302&cpage=1#comment-404 David Kitchen Thu, 04 Mar 2010 14:53:15 +0000 http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=302#comment-404 Hi Alexander, It's quite simple realy, if the Conservatives have 326 seats all the other parties have a total of 324, that is a majority of 2 i.e. 2 times the amount over the halfway point. Therefore, if they have 12 more than the 325 half seat point their majority is 24 and so on. The majority is expressed as the number of seats a party has in excess of all the other parties added together, irespective of the individual parties voting preferences in parliament. Hope that helps. Ciao David Hi Alexander,
It’s quite simple realy, if the Conservatives have 326 seats all the other parties have a total of 324, that is a majority of 2 i.e. 2 times the amount over the halfway point. Therefore, if they have 12 more than the 325 half seat point their majority is 24 and so on. The majority is expressed as the number of seats a party has in excess of all the other parties added together, irespective of the individual parties voting preferences in parliament.

Hope that helps.

Ciao
David

]]> By: Alexander Petrov http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=302&cpage=1#comment-396 Alexander Petrov Sun, 28 Feb 2010 16:58:35 +0000 http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/?p=302#comment-396 Good evening, I am sorry for asking an amateur question, but I do not really understand how the Conservative majority in your prediction is calculated. Let's take the last one, for instance - you predict the Tories to have 337 seats. OK, the required majority is 326 seats (half of 650 plus 1). 337 seats give them a 12-seat majority. Say, the speaker is conservative and you calculate him separately - that's 13. If you imagine that they manage to collect all the Irish Unionist Parties under their whip - that's ten more (unless one of the traditionally Sinn Fein/SDLP districts swithces to unionists). How did you get the figure of 24? The previous forecast (the one of February, 19th) is even more difficult to comprehend: 350 seats is a 25-seat majority, plus the Speaker is 26, and even if ALL of the Irish seats are unionist, it's still only 44. Could you please elaborate on the way you calculate the majority? Good evening,

I am sorry for asking an amateur question, but I do not really understand how the Conservative majority in your prediction is calculated. Let’s take the last one, for instance – you predict the Tories to have 337 seats. OK, the required majority is 326 seats (half of 650 plus 1). 337 seats give them a 12-seat majority. Say, the speaker is conservative and you calculate him separately – that’s 13. If you imagine that they manage to collect all the Irish Unionist Parties under their whip – that’s ten more (unless one of the traditionally Sinn Fein/SDLP districts swithces to unionists). How did you get the figure of 24?
The previous forecast (the one of February, 19th) is even more difficult to comprehend: 350 seats is a 25-seat majority, plus the Speaker is 26, and even if ALL of the Irish seats are unionist, it’s still only 44. Could you please elaborate on the way you calculate the majority?

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