Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...]
This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Final Update – 14:45 BST
Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Conservative
36.2%
+3.0%
Labour
26.9%
-9.2%
Lib Dem
27.6%
+5.2%
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick [...]
This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...]
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