As the General Election draws close we will be changing our forecast technique in the New Year to take account of the need for a prediction of the final result of the vote on the day it will occur. At present we forecast for an election taking place on the day of the prediction, but of course we are expecting a real vote either at the end of March or the beginning of May. Our current method of forecasting under states the performance of the Liberal Democrats as they normally only pick up votes during an election campaign. We hope our new style predictions will factor in this phenomenon.
We will unveil the new “Election Prediction” with our next main forecast.
There is an enormous voter rejection against the so called main parties. Independents and both UKIP and the BNP have made great impressions into the political soup.
Where are the projections for these parties and others who will make big gains against the failed main parties.
Hi Terry,
We’re including our predictions for all parties in our weekly forecast. Our most recent predicts seats for the Greens and one or two independents. If we believe that UKIP or the BNP will win a seat at the General Election then we will say so.
I think the country is in for a big shock!, don’t underestimate the BNP party, They gained 1,000,000 voters in the Euro Election.
I think that immigration, housing, jobs are a big issue to the ordinary working class family.
I have noticed a lot of land owners also swinging to the UKIP Party.
I agree with the comments above. In Yorkshire there has been a huge rise in popularity/support for the BNP. I cover most of the North Easterly cities during a week, and have found through Election discussions with clients, a firm North/South divide, especially since the expenses scandal. Many are questioning the unwritten right of learned toffs to run the country. I find myself having to agree, I have no affinity with these Etonion Fops either, they do not represent the masses, politics is just a continuation of their University activities, campus papers etc. The BNP are the working class man, and will suprise many with the support they receive…will the wealthy, educated, southerners lobby to take the vote away from the uneducated northerner, then?
BNP have been discriminated against throughout this campaign ,BBC mainly responsible .Had they had a fair hearing then i could see them in the running along with the main three .BNP are the truth party and the only party with common sense policies nothing to do with racism how can so called educated people be duped into the racism slur thinking.
@David Bird
Common sense policies? Even if you decide to ignore their openly racist past, the BNP’s policies are extremely right-wing (in the social sense). No ’sensible’ party would reintroduce capital punishment, and if they’re so ‘non-racist’ and ‘truthful’ how come they have only fairly recently allowed non-white people to join the party as a result of outside force?