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Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout?

Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions?

The forecast of Lib Dem losses is made on the basis of a resurgent Conservative Party that is consistently polling at a level 10% higher than its share of the vote in the 2005 election. At the same time the Liberal Democrats have been trailing in the polls with levels of support well under their share of the vote four years ago. On those figures the Conservatives would improve their lead over the Lib Dems by around 15%, giving a 7.5% swing to the Tories. This kind of figure would yield to the Conservatives almost 30 Lib Dem seats, as the table below indicates.

Lib Dem / Conservative Marginals 2009/10 Election

Constituency Electorate Conservative Lib. Dem. Majority Majority%
Romsey CC 72177 22340 22465 125 0.25
Solihull BC 77910 20617 20896 279 0.53
Westmorland and Lonsdale CC 69363 22302 22569 267 0.54
Taunton CC 85466 25191 25764 573 0.96
Eastleigh BC 76844 18648 19216 568 1.14
Somerton and Frome CC 77806 22947 23759 812 1.50
Hereford CC 71813 19323 20285 962 2.05
Carshalton and Wallington BC 67844 16289 17357 1068 2.48
Torbay BC 76474 17288 19317 2029 4.29
Cheltenham BC 71541 15819 18122 2303 5.28
Cornwall North CC 86841 20766 23842 3076 5.49
Sutton and Cheam BC 63319 16922 19768 2846 6.79
Richmond Park BC 70555 20280 24011 3731 7.26
Portsmouth South BC 70969 13685 17047 3362 8.33
Cheadle BC 68123 19169 23189 4020 8.47
Southport BC 67977 15255 19093 3838 9.32
Devon North CC 76203 18868 23840 4972 9.57
Bath BC 66824 15463 20101 4638 10.12
Brecon and Radnorshire CC 55171 13277 17182 3905 10.18
Teignbridge CC 88674 21593 27808 6215 10.21
Winchester CC 85810 23749 31222 7473 12.12
Dorset Mid and Poole North CC 65924 16518 22000 5482 12.14
Cornwall South East CC 80704 18479 24986 6507 12.17
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CC 71702 13092 18993 5901 13.00
Argyll and Bute CC 67325 10150 15786 5636 13.04
Colchester BC 79010 14868 21145 6277 13.98
Truro and St Austell CC 80256 16686 24089 7403 14.36
Oxford West and Abingdon CC 80195 16653 24336 7683 14.61
Yeovil CC 77668 17096 25658 8562 17.15
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine CC 65548 11814 19285 7471 17.94
Norfolk North CC 80784 20909 31515 10606 17.99
Kingston and Surbiton BC 72671 16431 25397 8966 18.02
Lewes CC 67073 15902 24376 8474 18.20
Northavon CC 81800 19839 30872 11033 18.68
Twickenham BC 72015 16731 26696 9965 19.28
Hazel Grove CC 64376 11607 19355 7748 19.81
Sheffield Hallam CC 59606 12028 20710 8682 21.42
St Ives CC 74716 13968 25577 11609 23.03
Montgomeryshire CC 46766 8246 15419 7173 23.83
Berwick-upon-Tweed CC 56944 10420 19052 8632 23.92
Harrogate and Knaresborough CC 65622 13684 24113 10429 24.33
Edinburgh West BC 65741 8817 22417 13600 30.05
North East Fife CC 62057 7517 20088 12571 32.60

Of course, this assumes a uniform swing across the country. In reality individual constituencies behave in a unique manner and the movement in votes is different depending on local circumstances. To analyse this, the table below shows the 43 seats where the Lib Dems won in 2001 and the Tories came second. Next to each seat is the 2005 result, showing who won, what the swing was and to who.

2005 Election – Swings in Con / Lib Dem Marginals

Constituency Electorate Conservative Lib. Dem. Majority Majority% 2005 Win Swing Swing%
Newbury CC 75903 26771 23311 -3460 6.33 Con LDm to Con 5.54
Devon West and Torridge CC 83489 25013 21777 -3236 5.52 Con LDm to Con 3.83
Weston-Super-Mare CC 74900 19804 17725 -2079 4.23 Con LDm to Con 2.48
Ludlow CC 64572 20979 18952 -2027 4.36 Con LDm to Con 4.07
Guildford CC 75566 22595 22248 -347 0.67 Con LDm to Con 0.9
Romsey CC 72177 22340 22465 125 0.25 Lib Dem LDm to Con 2.32
Eastleigh BC 76844 18648 19216 568 1.14 Lib Dem LDm to Con 2.64
Somerton and Frome CC 77806 22947 23759 812 1.5 Lib Dem Con to LDm 0.12
Hereford CC 71813 19323 20285 962 2.05 Lib Dem LDm to Con 0.06
Carshalton and Wallington BC 67844 16289 17357 1068 2.48 Lib Dem LDm to Con 4.36
Torbay BC 76474 17288 19317 2029 4.29 Lib Dem LDm to Con 4.91
Cheltenham BC 71541 15819 18122 2303 5.28 Lib Dem LDm to Con 3.64
Sutton and Cheam BC 63319 16922 19768 2846 6.79 Lib Dem LDm to Con 2.02
Cornwall North CC 86841 20766 23842 3076 5.49 Lib Dem LDm to Con 6.36
Portsmouth South BC 70969 13685 17047 3362 8.33 Lib Dem LDm to Con 3.61
Richmond Park BC 70555 20280 24011 3731 7.26 Lib Dem LDm to Con 1.42
Southport BC 67977 15255 19093 3838 9.32 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1
Brecon and Radnorshire CC 55171 13277 17182 3905 10.18 Lib Dem Con to LDm 4.09
Cheadle BC 68123 19169 23189 4020 8.47 Lib Dem Con to LDm 4.2
Bath BC 66824 15463 20101 4638 10.12 Lib Dem LDm to Con 5.63
Devon North CC 76203 18868 23840 4972 9.57 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1.76
Dorset Mid and Poole North CC 65924 16518 22000 5482 12.14 Lib Dem Con to LDm 5.63
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CC 71702 13092 18993 5901 13 Lib Dem LDm to Con 6.68
Teignbridge CC 88674 21593 27808 6215 10.21 Lib Dem Con to LDm 2.56
Colchester BC 79010 14868 21145 6277 13.98 Lib Dem Con to LDm 0.64
Cornwall South East CC 80704 18479 24986 6507 12.17 Lib Dem Con to LDm 0.89
Montgomeryshire CC 46766 8246 15419 7173 23.83 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1.16
Truro and St Austell CC 80256 16686 24089 7403 14.36 Lib Dem LDm to Con 0.84
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine CC 65548 11814 19285 7471 17.94 Lib Dem Con to LDm 2.3
Winchester CC 85810 23749 31222 7473 12.12 Lib Dem LDm to Con 2.08
Oxford West and Abingdon CC 80195 16653 24336 7683 14.61 Lib Dem LDm to Con 1.6
Hazel Grove CC 64376 11607 19355 7748 19.81 Lib Dem LDm to Con 1.06
Lewes CC 67073 15902 24376 8474 18.2 Lib Dem LDm to Con 1.58
Yeovil CC 77668 17096 25658 8562 17.15 Lib Dem Con to LDm 4.5
Berwick-upon-Tweed CC 56944 10420 19052 8632 23.92 Lib Dem Con to LDm 0.31
Sheffield Hallam CC 59606 12028 20710 8682 21.42 Lib Dem LDm to Con 1.51
Kingston and Surbiton BC 72671 16431 25397 8966 18.02 Lib Dem LDm to Con 6.95
Twickenham BC 72015 16731 26696 9965 19.28 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1.98
Harrogate and Knaresborough CC 65622 13684 24113 10429 24.33 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1.68
Norfolk North CC 80784 20909 31515 10606 17.99 Lib Dem Con to LDm 8.56
Northavon CC 81800 19839 30872 11033 18.68 Lib Dem Con to LDm 0.48
St Ives CC 74716 13968 25577 11609 23.03 Lib Dem Con to LDm 1.31
North East Fife CC 62057 7517 20088 12571 32.6 Lib Dem Con to LDm 2.99

Overall, the average swing to the Liberal Democrats across these 43 seats was 0.7%. Across the nation as a whole though there was a Conservative to Lib Dem swing of 1.56%. Putting these two figures together, we can see that in the 2005 General Election, in Lib Dem / Tory marginals the Conservatives actually achieved a swing to themselves that beat the national swing by over 2%. This demonstrates that the idea that Liberal Democrat incumbency produces greater local popularity votes is disproved by the hard numbers. At the 2005 election, where the Conservatives were in second place to the Liberal Democrats they did better then the national picture.

Now, add this information to the current poll figures (our latest forecast has the Conservatives on 43.6% and the Liberal Democrats on 18.5% – a swing since the last election of 7.4% which would topple a majority in a seat of 14.8%). Begin by going down the first of our two tables – the current polling figures indicate that every seat down to Oxford West would go. Add onto that our swing figures from the 2005 General Election in Con / Lib Dem target seats showing the difference from the national picture in these key battlegrounds and the projected swing could actually be in the region of 10% where it counts, enough to overturn majorities close to 20%. That kind of figure would take all but 7 of the 43 Lib Dem / Tory targets at the next election.

Even if we assume that the voting figures are more like 40 / 22 (Tory / Lib Dem) at the next election, that still gives us a swing of 3.8%. That would topple seats down to Richmond Park, but with including our 2005 battleground analysis we would also see seats like Teinbridge and Winchester going blue, half way down the list.

No wonder Liberal Vision were so worried last September.

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May 11th, 2009 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Category: Analysis

11 comments to Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout?

  • Twickenham Tory
    May 14, 2009 at 11:39 am · Reply

    You’re absolutely right that there will be a large number of LibDem seats that fall to us (I would put the number nearer 20 than 30, but the minumum will be about 15 pickups).

    You overstate the case re the LibDem vote share fall. The LibDems polled 22% in the last general election, and are polling 18-19% now (pre-expenses scandal). But the LibDems have (all the way back to 1992, which is as far as I’ve looked) typically picked up 3-5% in election campaigns – firstly, because they rarely get much coverage outside of elections; secondly, because the LibDems have tended (although this may not re-occur given our reinvigorated activist base) to have better GOTV operations than peers.

    It’s also probably pushing the case to suggest that Edinburgh West and North East Fife are Cob/LibDem marginals – in each case the Libs outpolled us by margins of 2.5-1. (The Libs may well lose one – or even both – of those seats, I just suspect it won’t be to us.)

    There are also local factcors at play. Huhne in Eastleigh may well keep his seat. Ed Davey in Kingston, although well down the list, may well lose his. Zac Goldsmith is utterly reviled by activists in Richmond, and may fail to pick up what should be an easy gain. Nick Harvey in Cornwall North will probably benefit from the collapse of UKIP. In other Cornish seats, their disappearance will be a disaster for sitting MP – I wouldn’t be surprised to see the LibDems lose three quarters of their Cornish / West Devon seats.

    tt

  • Forecast UK
    May 14, 2009 at 3:47 pm · Reply

    Hi TT,

    Let me take your points one by one. Yes, we are looking at figures given the current poll ratings (slightly lower than you are claiming) but we do also look at figure for the Lib Dem vote more similar to the 2005 result.

    We’re not treating the seats of Edinburgh West or NE Fife as “marginal”. Our chart shows that it would require a phenomenal swing for the Conservatives to gain them. They appear in our list because they are Con / Lib battlegrounds according to our definition. If the Tories won those two seats then the Lib Dems would be looking at a complete slaughter at the next election.

    Yes, local factors are at play (see for example Norfolk North at the 2005 election) but we have already stated that. Forecast UK makes macro level forecasts so while we expect that our individual predictions for specific constituencies might be wrong, overall we come close to the aggregate picture (as our predictions for Wales in 2007 demonstrate).

  • Twickenham Tory
    May 15, 2009 at 8:21 am · Reply

    I wish I could be so optimistic!

    We’re currently polling in the low 40s, as opposed to the 32% we got in ’05. Let us simply assume we get 43% at the general election – all from Labour – and the LabDems score exactly what they got in ’05. (If I’m wrong with these forecasts, I suspect it will be because Labour has completely collapsed, and then I suspect we’d see us at 46% and the Libs in the mid 20s.)

    On my forecast, we’d see 4 Con voters for every 3 we had previously, and a basically unchanged LibDem vote. This would net us 21 gains on your chart. Now, the real number may be a little higher (I wouldn’t be surprised if Cornwall SE and Truro went our way, and have already made my Kingston forecast.)

    But your mistake is to forecast a “swing” – truth is, we’ve gained votes from Labour and the Libs have held it steady. Surely it makes more sense to just multiply our vote by 1.33, and keep the Libs steady.) On your numbers, we’d nab Twickenham. And that isn’t (alas) going to happen. On the ground here, I see all the effort being ploughed into Richmond and (thanks to a great candidate) Kingston.

  • George Flaxman
    April 23, 2010 at 1:31 pm · Reply

    I think not….

    Quite the reverse.

  • Bob S.
    April 23, 2010 at 5:58 pm · Reply

    Hind sight is a wonderful thing, agree with George, life is very different now !!!!

    Would be very interesting to see what the results show now with the Clegg bounce still ongoing. Poll of Polls show that Lib Dems could end up with as many as 100/110 M.P.’s on 7th May, Question is ????

    Who will be the loser – Tories or labour ???

  • P Baker
    April 29, 2010 at 12:58 pm · Reply

    After the last TV debate, YouGov asked: “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”. The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative 25%, Labour 19%. If this actually happened there would be 548 Lib Dem MPs, 41 Labour MPs and just 25 Tories.

    The message here seems to be, vote for what you really want to happen, and it will.

  • M B
    April 30, 2010 at 12:11 pm · Reply

    Do minor differences in the polls really matter. They all show that we are heading for a hung parliament with the Tory’s being the largest party in terms of seats won. The question is quite simple Who will LibDem get into bed with to form a government. This will all come down to whether anyone will offer Electoral Reform to them as a aweetener.

  • johan
    April 30, 2010 at 3:04 pm · Reply

    They have to go with Cons – Clegg can’t possibly talk about “fair” electoral reform on one hand AND get into bed with the labour party as PM with least # of votes on the other.

  • johan
    April 30, 2010 at 3:11 pm · Reply

    Btw it’s neck and neck still – both Cons and LibDem need to improve their share of the vote by 5% in the last week to get a majority, which, based on previous elections and pollsters, doesn’t happen. Interesting that Cons still need to work harder than Labour to get to their majority. Also maybe it’s too late, the people with a postal vote may have already voted Clegg.

  • Bob S.
    May 1, 2010 at 8:27 am · Reply

    Hi MB – You have hit the $64 question right on the head ! IT IS going to be all about P.R. – not transferrable voting etc…. but P.R.

    And that will change british politics for ever.

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