Latest Forecast - 22nd January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and have dropped back into a dangerously low poll rating.

Summary

A week of bad publicity and the Labour forecast based on a number of UK polling agencies is down again. The Conservatives are now opening up a significant lead, though it’s too early to tell what the effect of the new Labour campaign attacking the Tory policy on marriage will be.

Forecast UK Predicted Swing

Although we expect the Liberal Democrats to make up some ground from their current position in the high teens in polling, we do not anticipate at the moment them reaching their 2005 level of 22%. This, combined with a resurgent Conservative vote, particularly in the South West, makes a number of their English seats won in 1997 vulnerable to the large swing expected towards the Tories.

Other Key Predictions

• The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
• In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
• We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
• At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
• We now forecast that the Conservatives will take back Wyre Forest from the Independent Richard Taylor

Full Forecast