Latest Forecast - 29th January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating.

Summary

The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.

Forecast UK Predicted Swing

It is clear that Labour continues to slowly slide in the polls and apart from Scotland their positions in all parts of the country is weak. An ICM marginals poll has helped our forecast confirm its predictions as regards the likelihood of a strong majority for David Cameron’s Conservatives.

We have evidence of the SNP vote beginning to slip in Scotland as the election approaches and this may affect our prediction of SNP seats over the next few weeks.

Other Key Predictions

• The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
• In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of eight seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is showing strong signs of recovery, though not quite back to 2005 levels.
• There is now growing evidence of weakening support for Plaid Cymru in Wales over the past month. Our forecast for the number of seats they will win has been adjusted in line with this.
• We no longer predict that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
• At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
• We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.

Full Forecast