Latest Forecast – 5th February 2010

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Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or just a particular observation of last weekend.

Summary

The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position firming up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our predictions for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.

Forecast UK Predicted Swing

Labour has picked up in the polls with a strong movement upwards this week, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats losing out. However, they are still polling at levels likely to see a large defeat at the General Election, unless the climb continues for at least a month.

The SNP vote in Scotland has stabilised, though we now believe they will only capture seven seats.

Other Key Predictions

• The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
• In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture around a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
• The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales seems to have recovered from its recent decline and we have adjusted our foecast appropriately.
• We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
• At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
• We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there. This is a change from our prediction last week and reflects that the current state of support for both leading candidates is very tight.

Full Forecast