Latest Forecast – 19th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives appear to have recovered slightly from the dip they suffered mid February, but new polls indicate that that situation may not remain for long. The Liberal Democrats appear to have stabilised their ratings around 21%.

Summary

The latest information shows the Liberal Democrat position continuing to firm up as the Election approaches. Although they are still not at the levels of the 2005 vote, our latest forecast revises our previous predictions last year for the South West where many seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives.

Forecast UK Predicted Swing

The Conservatives have recovered slightly from last week but recent opinion polls indicate that their support may continue to slip. One other key feature of the polls of the past few weeks is that the number of people prepared to vote for minority parties continues to fall as the upcoming General Election is cast by the media as a battle between the main parties.

After last week’s stabilisation of the SNP vote, this week has seen the slide begin again. We continue to forecast that they will only capture seven seats.

Other Key Predictions

• The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
• In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture between a fifth and a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them a total of seven seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to 2005 levels.
• The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win 4 or 5 seats. In this forecast we tend to a cautious prediction of 4 seats.
• We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
• At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
• We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.

Full Forecast