Latest Forecast – 5th March 2010

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Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support.

Summary

After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, despite a number of fluctuating polls (especially from YouGov), the two main parties have seen little shift in their support. New polls in the marginals (both nationally and regionally) have helped to clarify how effective the Conservatives have been in targeting the right kind of votes in the right kind of places. We continue to forecast a Conservative overall majority, but with a slim margin of seats.

Forecast UK Predicted Swing

We continue to see an increase in support for the SNP and Plaid and our forecast reflects these observations. In particular, the SNP have seen dramatic increases in support in Scotland, mainly at the expense of the Tories and Labour, and indications on the ground are that they are now more likely to be used by voters north of the border as an “Anti-Labour” vote. Our new forecast reflects these latest findings.

Other Key Predictions

• The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
• In Scotland we predict that the SNP will capture over a quarter of the popular vote, enough to gain them more than ten seats. The Labour vote however, after collapsing in the first half of 2009, is now back to just below 2005 levels.
• The Plaid Cymru vote in Wales continue to fluctuate around levels where they may win between 4 and 6 seats. In this forecast we tend to a more bold prediction of 6 seats.
• We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
• At present we do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
• We believe on balance that Richard Taylor will just hold onto his seat in Wyre Forest from the Conservative challenge there.

Full Forecast