This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Final Update – 14:45 BST
Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority.
Summary
| Party | % | Since 2005 |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 36.2% | +3.0% |
| Labour | 26.9% | -9.2% |
| Lib Dem | 27.6% | +5.2% |
Other Key Predictions
- The Greens will pick up Brighton Pavilion as their first Westminster seat, though we are cautious as to the size of majority they will acquire.
- We do not believe that George Galloway’s Respect will win either of the two seats they are contesting in East London.
- We do not believe that the Speaker, John Bercow, will lose his seat to Nigel Farage.
- We believe that Richard Taylor will lose in Wyre Forest to the Conservative challenge there.
- Dai Davies will hold onto Blaenau Gwent
Full Forecast
| Party | Seats | Since 2005 |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 314 | +101 |
| Labour | 199 | -146 |
| Lib Dem | 105 | +45 |
| SNP | 7 | +1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | +2 |
| Green | 1 | +1 |
| Irish | 18 | nc |
| Ind (Blaenau Gwent) | 1 | -2 |
| Speaker | 1 |
nc |
| Conservatives short of Majority by | 10 |
I’ve enjoyed your forecasts from the US and I’ll be watching the BBC online tonight to see how close you hit it.
I hope this is right. Though I suppose an eventually Tory victory is inevitable.
I’ve put together some target lists for both the Conservatives and Lib Dems:
Tory targets:
http://bit.ly/bKEYBv
LD targets: http://bit.ly/c7J7FX
Tory targets, sorted according to declaration time:
http://bit.ly/9W4LTZ
LD targets, sorted according to declaration time:
http://bit.ly/axZsmi
I’m going to fill them in as the results are declared during the night.