Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
| Actual | ICM | Populus | Harris | ComRes | Opinium | Forecast UK | YouGov | TNS | Angus Reid | |
| Con | 36.9 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 35 | 36.2 | 35 | 33 | 36 |
| Lab | 29.7 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26.9 | 28 | 27 | 24 |
| LDm | 23.6 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 27.6 | 28 | 29 | 29 |
| Error | 5 | 5.2 | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 7.5 |
8 |
12 |
12 |
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse in the “Clegg bounce” and here at Forecast UK we didn’t see any indication of it in the polls. Indeed, the last few days of polls indicated a slight rising trend in supports for the Liberal Democrats.
More analysis to follow.
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