As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself.
Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for the Conservatives with a resurgence of votes for Labour, especially north of the border where the SNP has slipped back. Since our last forecast two weeks ago however we have seen an improvement in the Conservative position, indicating that media speculation about the gap between the parties tightening may be over-hyped. We therefore continue to forecast a healthy Conservative majority and do not believe that there is much evidence yet of the likelihood of a hung parliament.
While we continue to forecast a collapse in the number of Liberal Democrat MPs, we fully anticipate the low figure to change once we are in the General Election campaign and the Liberal Democrat profile increases. Remember, Forecast UK predictions are based on the General Election being held the day of the forecast.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Full Forecast
Conservative 39.7% Labour 28.2% Lib Dem 18.2%
Conservative 365 Labour 221 Lib Dem 26 SNP 10 Plaid Cymru 5 Green 1 Irish 18 Other 4 Conservative Majority of 80
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