Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
In the past two days we have taken into account new polls from both Populus and YouGov, who’s latest research shows a Conservative lead of 26 percentage points on 49%. Our forecast currently puts the Conservative vote on 42.3%, but if other polls follow this morning’s YouGov research that figure may rise again.
Opinion polls north of the border show a large increase in SNP support, with almost as many Scottish voters prepared to support Alex Salmond’s party as they are Labour. Our Scottish forecast therefore shows the SNP set to win around 14 Westminster seats.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP especially in the light of poor Labour polling in the South East.
Full Forecast
Con : 42.3%
Lab : 27.0%
LDm : 18.7%Con : 391
Lab : 196
LDm : 21
SNP : 14
PC : 5
Irish : 18
Oth : 5Conservative Majority of 132
It will be a releif when the Labour party goes, they have been in office too long, we need a new government and change of direction, which in my view is long over due.