Forecast UK

Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.

Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid

Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36

Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24

LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29

Error

5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5

8

12

12

In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...]