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This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month. Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem The main change since the General Election is the collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another [...] Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK. Actual Con Lab LDm Error 5 8 12 12 In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...] As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself. Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for [...] It’s been seven weeks since our last forecast and that time has seen a huge swing to the SNP from Labour in Scotland. Multiple opinion polls are showing that Labour is now facing an electoral wipeout with almost twice as many Scottish voters claiming that they would support the SNP rather than Labour. Our new forecast [...] With almost three weeks passing since our last forecast, a number of the opinion pollsters have issued new polls which continue to confirm the large lead that the Conservatives have over Labour. In addition to this, the Scottish data confirms that the move against Labour is clearly seen north of the border and Labour are now [...] |
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