This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.
This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As political events settle down after a dynamic fortnight, Labour have pulled back slightly but still look set on course for a disastrous defeat at the polls.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
39.2%
+6.8%
-0.8%
Labour
27.7%
-7.5%
+0.5%
Lib Dem
19.8%
-2.2%
-0.1%
Swing Labour to Conservative
[...]
May 2007 was the first real test for Forecast UK in predicting UK elections. We gave a number of forecasts in particular for the Welsh Assembly, and our final forecast on the morning of the vote was particularly accurate.
Predicted Result
Actual Result
Labour
27
26
Plaid Cymru
15
15
Conservative
10
12
Lib Dem
7
6
Other
1
1
Although we [...]
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