Latest Forecast - 3rd May 2010

This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...]

Latest Forecast - 15th January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As political events settle down after a dynamic fortnight, Labour have pulled back slightly but still look set on course for a disastrous defeat at the polls.
Summary

Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev

Conservative
39.2%
+6.8%
-0.8%

Labour
27.7%
-7.5%
+0.5%

Lib Dem
19.8%
-2.2%
-0.1%

Swing Labour to Conservative
[...]

Welsh Assembly 2007 Forecast – Looking Back

May 2007 was the first real test for Forecast UK in predicting UK elections. We gave a number of forecasts in particular for the Welsh Assembly, and our final forecast on the morning of the vote was particularly accurate.

 
Predicted Result
Actual Result

 
 
 

Labour

27
26

Plaid Cymru
15
15

Conservative
10
12

Lib Dem
7
6

Other
1
1

 

Although we [...]