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As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself. Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for [...] Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls, we are seeing a reduction in support for the Conservatives with a resurgence of votes for Labour, especially north of the border where the SNP has slipped back. Despite this we continue to forecast a healthy Conservative [...] Our latest forecast uses data from just before the party conferences (and will be followed by one from after the conferences). We see that the Conservatives are maintaining their strong position and Labour continue to be set for a poor result. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first MP, especially in [...] Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this year [...] Our third forecast of the year reflects the increasing bad news for the Labour Government in the news and the consequential effect on public opinion. The Liberal Democrat vote continues to improve, and while we are still predicting losses for them, especially in the South-West, those losses are beginning to be minimised. We continue to forecast the Green [...] Our second forecast of the year shows that the Conservative double-digit lead continues to be maintained. The Liberal Democrat vote has improved slightly. While we are still predicting heavy losses for them, especially in the South-West, there are signs that their vote is improving slowly. We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first [...] Our first forecast of the New Year shows that the "Brown Bounce" has all but evaporated. The Liberal Democrat vote has fallen back again and all the indications are that they are continuing to lose out in the Tory / Labour battle. We continue to predict them losing a dramatic number of seats in the South West [...] It’s been seven weeks since our last forecast and that time has seen a huge swing to the SNP from Labour in Scotland. Multiple opinion polls are showing that Labour is now facing an electoral wipeout with almost twice as many Scottish voters claiming that they would support the SNP rather than Labour. Our new forecast [...] With almost three weeks passing since our last forecast, a number of the opinion pollsters have issued new polls which continue to confirm the large lead that the Conservatives have over Labour. In addition to this, the Scottish data confirms that the move against Labour is clearly seen north of the border and Labour are now [...] |
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