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Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have continued to see a noticeable decline in support for the Conservatives, with polls by ICM, Populus and Angus Reid confirming the new trend.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
38.3%
+5.9%
-0.6%
Labour
28.2%
-7.0%
+0.8%
Lib Dem
21.1%
-0.9%
+0.4%
Swing Labour [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
39.6%
+7.2%
-0.5%
Labour
26.4%
-8.8%
-0.1%
Lib Dem
21.2%
-0.8%
+0.4%
Swing Labour to Conservative
8.0%
The latest [...]
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
In the past two days we have taken into account new polls from both ComRes and ICM. The large Conservative lead first shown in the YouGov poll is holding up in other surveys.
Opinion polls north of the border show [...]
The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only one week away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote.
By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. [...]
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