This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month.
Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2010
Conservative
40.1%
+4.2%
Labour
36.7%
+7.0%
Lib Dem
14.1%
-8.5%
The main change since the General Election is the collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another [...]
This is our final forecast for the General Election.
Final Update – 14:45 BST
Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Conservative
36.2%
+3.0%
Labour
26.9%
-9.2%
Lib Dem
27.6%
+5.2%
Other Key Predictions
The Greens will pick [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...]
FusionCharts.
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Date
Con
Lab
LDm
18th April
34.5
28.8
25.3
19th April
33.5
27.4
27.7
20th April
32.5
26.1
30.1
21st April
32.2
25.3
31.4
22nd April
32.3
25.6
31.0
23rd April
32.6
26.0
30.4
24th April
33.0
26.1
30.3
25th April
34.0
26.6
29.1
26th April
33.9
26.8
29.5
27th April
33.6
26.8
29.1
28th April
34.0
27.2
28.7
29th April
34.1
26.5
29.0
30th April
33.9
25.7
29.0
1st May
34.0
25.7
29.3
2nd May
35.1
25.7
28.8
3rd May
34.7
25.8
28.5
4th May
34.2
26.7
28.2
5th May
34.9
27.4
26.7
Please note – the tracker may change through the day as we receive updated [...]
Daily Poll Tracker
As the General Election Campaign gets underway, Forecast UK is unveiling its daily poll tracker. This is a quick way for you to see where the polls are moving on a day to day basis.
Too often it can be confusing to try and compare one poll with another. Different polling firms use different [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
As we go into the formal General Election campaign, the latest Forecast UK prediction shows an improving position for the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats bounce last week has vanished and Labour has stabilised as a result.
Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Our new forecast shows an improvement for the Conservatives and a very good week for the Liberal Democrats
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
36.8%
+4.4%
+0.5%
Labour
28.5%
-6.7%
-0.5%
Lib Dem
21.1%
-0.9%
+1.6%
Swing Labour to Conservative
5.6%
A much better week for the Conservatives sees them [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Our updated forecast shows that the Conservatives are continuing to slip and we are predicting David Cameron to lead the largest party in the Commons, but to be clearly short of an overall [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Our updated forecast shows a rise in support for Labour and the Conservatives and a steep decline for the Liberal Democrats.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
37.5%
+5.1%
+0.5%
Labour
29.7%
-5.5%
+1.6%
Lib Dem
18.6%
-3.4%
-1.3%
Swing Labour to Conservative
5.3%
The main feature of this week’s [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
37.0%
+4.6%
-0.2%
Labour
28.1%
-7.1%
+0.1%
Lib Dem
19.9%
-2.1%
-1.0%
Swing Labour to Conservative
5.9%
After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, [...]
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