Final Forecast - 6th May 2010

This is our final forecast for the General Election.

Final Update – 14:45 BST

Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority.

Summary

Party
%
Since 2005

Conservative
36.2%
+3.0%

Labour
26.9%
-9.2%

Lib Dem
27.6%
+5.2%

Other Key Predictions

The Greens will pick [...]

Latest Forecast - 3rd May 2010

This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...]

Latest Forecast - 28th April

Since our last forecast the position in the polls has stabilised slightly. If an election was held tomorrow, we believe that the Liberal Democrats would still be in second position, but not with as large a lead over Labour as some recent opinion polls have indicated.

Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the [...]

Latest Forecast - 9th April 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

As we go into the formal General Election campaign, the latest Forecast UK prediction shows an improving position for the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats bounce last week has vanished and Labour has stabilised as a result.

Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...]

Latest Forecast – 19th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives appear to have recovered slightly from the dip they suffered mid February, but new polls indicate that that situation may not remain for long. The Liberal Democrats [...]

Latest Forecast - 12th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have continued to see a noticeable decline in support for the Conservatives, with polls by ICM, Populus and Angus Reid confirming the new trend.

Summary

Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev

Conservative
38.3%
+5.9%
-0.6%

Labour
28.2%
-7.0%
+0.8%

Lib Dem
21.1%
-0.9%
+0.4%

Swing Labour [...]

Latest Forecast – 5th February 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or [...]

Latest Forecast - 29th January 2010

Forecast UK Tracker

This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating.

Summary

Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev

Conservative
39.6%
+7.2%
-0.5%

Labour
26.4%
-8.8%
-0.1%

Lib Dem
21.2%
-0.8%
+0.4%

Swing Labour to Conservative

8.0%

The latest [...]

Latest Forecast – 15th December 2009

As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself.

Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for [...]

Latest Forecast – 4th May 2009

Our third forecast of the year reflects the increasing bad news for the Labour Government in the news and the consequential effect on public opinion.

The Liberal Democrat vote continues to improve, and while we are still predicting losses for them, especially in the South-West, those losses are beginning to be minimised.

We continue to forecast the Green [...]