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This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month. Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem The main change since the General Election is the collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another [...] This is our final forecast for the General Election. Final Update – 14:45 BST Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other Key Predictions The Greens will pick [...] A dramatic week in the polls has prompted us to release an interim forecast to reflect the current parties’ standings. Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the poll results of the past few days, we have analysed the regional fluctuations, tactical voting possibilities and trends to give a far greater accurate picture of [...] Forecast UK Tracker Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats. Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...] Given the increasing likelihood of a Hung Parliament, we have put together a YouTube video player with the full Election Night programme from 1992, the last time that a Hung Parliament was [...] As we approach the General Election Forecast UK will be stepping up its predictions leading to, we hope, a daily forecast during the election itself. Our latest forecast uses data from the past few weeks. In line with figures seen in recent opinion polls in the past month, we are seeing a slow reduction in support for [...] |
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