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This is our first forecast of the new parliament and reflects opinion polls in the UK over the past month. Please note – percentage changes are from 2010 GB results. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem The main change since the General Election is the collapse in support for the Lib Dems. Whether this would continue at the present rate were another [...] This is our final forecast for the General Election. Final Update – 14:45 BST Our forecast shows a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. The combined total of the Labour and Liberal Democrat seats is 304 and this is not enough to form an absolute majority. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other Key Predictions The Greens will pick [...] This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...] Since our last forecast the position in the polls has stabilised slightly. If an election was held tomorrow, we believe that the Liberal Democrats would still be in second position, but not with as large a lead over Labour as some recent opinion polls have indicated. Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the [...] A dramatic week in the polls has prompted us to release an interim forecast to reflect the current parties’ standings. Unlike other organisations that simply apply a uniform swing to the poll results of the past few days, we have analysed the regional fluctuations, tactical voting possibilities and trends to give a far greater accurate picture of [...] Forecast UK Tracker Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats. Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...] Forecast UK Tracker As we go into the formal General Election campaign, the latest Forecast UK prediction shows an improving position for the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats bounce last week has vanished and Labour has stabilised as a result. Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...] |
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