Latest Forecast - 3rd May 2010

This is our penultimate forecast before the General Election proper. We will be providing a full forecast once the final opinion polls have been released, published either on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

This forecast assumes a General Election held tomorrow (Tuesday 4th May). For the first time in a fortnight we have the Liberal Democrats predicted [...]

Can Brown still hold a March 25th Election?

The simple answer is, yes. Here is the timetable from the official Commons’ Briefing Paper, together with the relevant dates.

Proclamation summoning new Parliament/dissolution of old Parliament/issue of writ
Day 0
Monday
March 1st

Receipt of writ
Day 1
Tuesday
March 2nd

Last day for publication of notice of election (4pm)
Day 3
Thursday
March 4th

Last day for delivery of nomination papers/withdrawals of candidature/ appointment of election agents [...]

Crewe and Nantwich – Second Forecast

The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only one week away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote.

By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. [...]

Welsh Assembly 2007 Forecast – Looking Back

May 2007 was the first real test for Forecast UK in predicting UK elections. We gave a number of forecasts in particular for the Welsh Assembly, and our final forecast on the morning of the vote was particularly accurate.

 
Predicted Result
Actual Result

 
 
 

Labour

27
26

Plaid Cymru
15
15

Conservative
10
12

Lib Dem
7
6

Other
1
1

 

Although we [...]