Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...]
Forecast UK Tracker
This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have continued to see a noticeable decline in support for the Conservatives, with polls by ICM, Populus and Angus Reid confirming the new trend.
Summary
Party
%
Since 2005
Since Prev
Conservative
38.3%
+5.9%
-0.6%
Labour
28.2%
-7.0%
+0.8%
Lib Dem
21.1%
-0.9%
+0.4%
Swing Labour [...]
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
In the past two days we have taken into account new polls from both Populus and YouGov, who’s latest research shows a Conservative lead of 26 percentage points on 49%. Our forecast currently puts the Conservative vote on 42.3%, [...]
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