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Forecast UK Tracker Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats. Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Our updated forecast shows a rise in support for Labour and the Conservatives and a steep decline for the Liberal Democrats. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 5.3% The main feature of this week’s [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 5.9% After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives have slipped again by over 1.5% and are now approaching levels of support which could leave them without an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats appear to have [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives appear to have recovered slightly from the dip they suffered mid February, but new polls indicate that that situation may not remain for long. The Liberal Democrats [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week we have begun to see a turn in the polls toward Labour, though we await confirmation from ICM and Populus as to whether this is an ongoing trend or [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 8.0% The latest [...] Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this year [...] It’s been seven weeks since our last forecast and that time has seen a huge swing to the SNP from Labour in Scotland. Multiple opinion polls are showing that Labour is now facing an electoral wipeout with almost twice as many Scottish voters claiming that they would support the SNP rather than Labour. Our new forecast [...] In recent months, the SNP has been running at around 3.5% in national opinion polls. When compared to Scottish only opinion polls, this figure appears to overstate the support of the SNP north of the border and leads to highly unlikely forecasts for the number of SNP MPs returned at the next General Election. However, opinion pollsters [...] |
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