At the 1987 General Election, Labour had strong hopes of removing Margaret Thatcher from power. In the end the swing to Neil Kinnock was almost negligible. Here’s the whole of the overnight coverage from [...]
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Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 5.9% After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. In the past week the Conservatives appear to have recovered slightly from the dip they suffered mid February, but new polls indicate that that situation may not remain for long. The Liberal Democrats [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 8.0% The latest [...] Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions? The forecast of Lib Dem losses is made on the basis of a resurgent Conservative Party that is consistently polling at a level 10% higher than its share of the vote in the 2005 election. At the same time the Liberal Democrats have been trailing in the polls with levels of support well under their share of the vote four years ago. On those figures the Conservatives would improve their lead over the Lib Dems by around 15%, giving a 7.5% swing to the Tories. This kind of figure would yield to the Conservatives almost 30 Lib Dem seats, as the table below indicates. Continue reading Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout? It’s been seven weeks since our last forecast and that time has seen a huge swing to the SNP from Labour in Scotland. Multiple opinion polls are showing that Labour is now facing an electoral wipeout with almost twice as many Scottish voters claiming that they would support the SNP rather than Labour. Our new forecast [...] The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is today and this is the final forecast from Forecast UK. By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. how much of the vote the winning party [...] The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only one week away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote. By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. [...] The by-election in Crewe and Nantwich is only two weeks away and here at Forecast UK we will be providing a prediction for the vote. By-election results are notoriously hard to predict as turnout can vary a large amount from a General Election. In the light of this, we will be providing a % Victory prediction, i.e. [...] |
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