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Forecast UK Tracker Our second forecast of the official campaign sees a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Their lead over Labour has been slashed, but both parties are losing significant ground to the Liberal Democrats. Please note – percentage changes have been adapted to reflect 2005 GB results, and not 2005 UK results [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Our updated forecast shows that the Conservatives are continuing to slip and we are predicting David Cameron to lead the largest party in the Commons, but to be clearly short of an overall [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Despite a turbulent week in the polls, the two main parties have stabilised, with the Liberal Democrats losing support. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 5.9% After last week’s dramatic slump for the Conservatives, [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and continue to drop back into a dangerously low poll rating. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 8.0% The latest [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. Labour have lost any momentum they were building after the start of the year and have dropped back into a dangerously low poll rating. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative 8.2% A week of [...] Forecast UK Tracker This is the latest of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote. As political events settle down after a dynamic fortnight, Labour have pulled back slightly but still look set on course for a disastrous defeat at the polls. Party Conservative Labour Lib Dem Swing Labour to Conservative The second of our new style General Election Predictions, focussing on projecting forward to the upcoming national vote, shows dramatic movement in public opinion over the past week. The failed Labour leadership coup has damaged the Government and our forecast has been adjusted to present a much more confident picture for Dave Cameron’s Conservatives. Summary Party Conservative Labour Lib [...] Our first forecast since the expenses crisis reveals a shift in public opinion away from the two main parties, but towards the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. Of greatest note is the notable increase in seats that we are now forecasting will be held by the Liberal Democrats, in comparison to our earlier forecasts this year [...] Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions? The forecast of Lib Dem losses is made on the basis of a resurgent Conservative Party that is consistently polling at a level 10% higher than its share of the vote in the 2005 election. At the same time the Liberal Democrats have been trailing in the polls with levels of support well under their share of the vote four years ago. On those figures the Conservatives would improve their lead over the Lib Dems by around 15%, giving a 7.5% swing to the Tories. This kind of figure would yield to the Conservatives almost 30 Lib Dem seats, as the table below indicates. Continue reading Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout? |
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