Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...]
Predicting the outcome of the European vote is a difficult job. In particular, voter turnout may have a dramatic effect on the figures. There is also the issue as to whether there is a “spiral of silence” about the level of support for the BNP. However, we will attempt to provide a forecast based on recent [...]
We will shortly be publishing new forecasts, both for a UK General Election and for the Euro Vote in June. Since our last forecast the political situation in the UK has altered significantly and our next forecasts will demonstrate not just a climb in poll ratings for the Liberal Democrats but also the effect of minor [...]
Here at Forecast UK we’ve been consistently predicting a large number of losses for the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election (if the public votes as it is currently indicating in the polls). How realistic are those predictions?
The forecast of Lib Dem losses is made on the basis of a resurgent Conservative Party that is consistently polling at a level 10% higher than its share of the vote in the 2005 election. At the same time the Liberal Democrats have been trailing in the polls with levels of support well under their share of the vote four years ago. On those figures the Conservatives would improve their lead over the Lib Dems by around 15%, giving a 7.5% swing to the Tories. This kind of figure would yield to the Conservatives almost 30 Lib Dem seats, as the table below indicates.
Continue reading Will the next Election see a Lib Dem wipeout?
Our third forecast of the year reflects the increasing bad news for the Labour Government in the news and the consequential effect on public opinion.
The Liberal Democrat vote continues to improve, and while we are still predicting losses for them, especially in the South-West, those losses are beginning to be minimised.
We continue to forecast the Green [...]
Our second forecast of the year shows that the Conservative double-digit lead continues to be maintained.
The Liberal Democrat vote has improved slightly. While we are still predicting heavy losses for them, especially in the South-West, there are signs that their vote is improving slowly.
We continue to forecast the Green Party to gain Brighton Pavilion, their first [...]
Our first forecast of the New Year shows that the "Brown Bounce" has all but evaporated.
The Liberal Democrat vote has fallen back again and all the indications are that they are continuing to lose out in the Tory / Labour battle. We continue to predict them losing a dramatic number of seats in the South West [...]
Our first forecast since the summer shows a slight improvement for Labour, especially in their Scottish heartlands. We are now predicting gains for the SNP in the region of 20 seats, still a disaster but not the complete Scottish landslide we were forecasting last month.
The Liberal Democrat vote has has recovered slightly, but all the indications [...]
Our latest forecast reflects the increasing reporting in UK polling of extraordinarily high Conservative support. We are forecasting over 45% of the vote for David Cameron’s Tories, their best performance in a Westminster election for decades and levels that would produce an extraordinary landslide..
The Liberal Democrat vote is stabilising around the 19% figure, but their seat [...]
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