Here’s a quick summary as to how the major polling organisations did in predicting the share of the vote, compared with Forecast UK.
Actual
ICM
Populus
Harris
ComRes
Opinium
Forecast UK
YouGov
TNS
Angus Reid
Con
36.9
36
35
35
37
35
36.2
35
33
36
Lab
29.7
28
27
29
28
27
26.9
28
27
24
LDm
23.6
26
26
27
28
26
27.6
28
29
29
Error
5
5.2
6
6.2
7
7.5
8
12
12
In terms of forecasting the share of the vote, we came in the middle of the predictions of the main polling firms. Of course, everyone was surprised by the collapse [...]
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of well over 100. We are predicting over 43% of the vote for David Cameron’s Tories, their best performance in a Westminster election for decades.
In the past week, a new poll by YouGov confirms not only the slump in Labour’s support [...]
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
In the past two days we have taken into account new polls from both Populus and YouGov, who’s latest research shows a Conservative lead of 26 percentage points on 49%. Our forecast currently puts the Conservative vote on 42.3%, [...]
Our latest forecast places the Conservative Party in a strong position with a predicted majority of over 100.
Recent opinion polls have placed the Conservatives at around 40% with the exception of YouGov who position them in the region of 44%. YouGov have recently excelled themselves with a highly accurate prediction of the London Mayoral contest and [...]
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